Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Hidden Swap Fees by JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Hit School Boards

(Bloomberg) -- James Barker saw no way out. In September 2003, the superintendent of the Erie City School District in Pennsylvania watched helplessly as his buildings began to crumble.

The 81-year-old Roosevelt Middle School was on the verge of being condemned. The district was running out of money to buy new textbooks. And the school board had determined that the 100,000-resident community 125 miles north of Pittsburgh couldn't afford a tax increase. Then JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-largest bank in the U.S., made Barker an offer that seemed too good to be true.

David DiCarlo, an Erie-based JPMorgan Chase banker, told Barker and the school board on Sept. 4, 2003, that all they had to do was sign papers he said would benefit them if interest rates increased in the future, and the bank would give the district $750,000, a transcript of the board meeting shows.

``You have severe building needs; you have serious academic needs,'' Barker, 58, says. ``It's very hard to ignore the fact that the bank says it will give you cash.'' So Barker and the board members agreed to the deal.

What New York-based JPMorgan Chase didn't tell them, the transcript shows, was that the bank would get more in fees than the school district would get in cash: $1 million. The complex deal, which placed taxpayer money at risk, was linked to four variables involving interest rates. Three years later, as interest rate benchmarks went the wrong way for the school district, the Erie board paid $2.9 million to JPMorgan to get out of the deal, which officials now say they didn't understand.

``That was like a sucker punch,'' Barker says. ``It's not about the district and the superintendent. It's about resources being sucked out of the classroom. If it's happening here, it's happening in other places.''

$12 Billion in Deals

It is. During the past four years in Pennsylvania alone, banks have pitched at least 500 deals totaling $12 billion like the one JPMorgan Chase sold to Erie, according to records on file with the state Department of Community and Economic Development. Most of the transactions -- which occurred outside the state's largest cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh -- have been made without public bidding, which means that banks and advisers privately arranged the deals with small school districts, the records show.

JPMorgan's Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon declined to say if he thought the bank's fee disclosure was proper and whether the bank acted in a fair, responsible and moral manner in Erie.

Banker DiCarlo declined to comment. JPMorgan spokesman Brian Marchiony says the deal gave the school district immediate debt savings and protected it against unpredictable interest rate risk in the future. He declined to answer specific questions.

Overpaying Fees

The Pennsylvania transactions involve interest-rate swaps, which are derivatives. Derivatives are financial contracts whose value is based on other securities or indexes; interest-rate swaps are tied to future changes in lending rates.

The Pennsylvania deals show that school districts routinely lose when making derivative deals. They pay fees to banks that are as much as five times higher than typical rates and overpay advisers by as much as 10-fold. That means banks often underpay schools on upfront amounts, as JPMorgan Chase did in Erie, public records show. And school officials aren't always well served by their supposedly independent advisers, whose fees are paid by the banks selling the deals -- only if the sale is made.

`Getting Fleeced'

In 15 Pennsylvania school districts, officials entered into interest-rate-swap deals worth $28 million since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Of that dollar amount, the schools took in $15 million, and banks and advisers got the rest as fees, Bloomberg data show.

``The school districts are getting fleeced,'' Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell says. The governor, 64, a Democrat who has been in office since 2003, says the state might in the future advise schools and municipalities on derivatives contracts before they sign with banks. Christopher Cox, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, says he's concerned that municipalities are taking on more risk than in the past when they raised money primarily from bond sales.

``It's a serious issue, not only in Pennsylvania but across the country,'' says Cox, 55, who has headed the SEC since 2005. ``That is what we have seen repeatedly. More often than not, the municipalities aren't configured to have financial sophisticates in charge of these offerings -- and the result is that the firms are the only ones who know what's going on.''

Just five years ago, municipal derivative deals weren't sanctioned in Pennsylvania, the sixth-most-populous U.S. state. Then, in September 2003, the state Legislature adopted a law allowing schools and towns to use interest-rate swaps to lower borrowing costs and raise cash.

Exchanging Payments

In a swap, two parties agree to exchange payments over a period of time that can last as long as 30 years. Typically, one agrees to pay a fixed rate and the other to pay a variable rate that changes with a benchmark index or formula defined in the contract.

Public agencies can benefit by using derivatives to guard against swings in borrowing costs or to lock in current interest rates for bond sales they might not make for years. In many cases, school districts use swaps as a way to refinance bonds they've issued in the past.

Derivative deals can bring banks fees three times higher than the traditional selling of municipal bonds, public records show. School districts don't know whether they're getting fair market values with swaps because the contracts are private; they don't know how to compare their deals with those done by other districts.

`Profits Are Greater'

This lack of transparency is a boon for the banks, says Christopher ``Kit'' Taylor, executive director from 1978 to 2007 of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, a panel that issues rules on municipal bond sales.

``Business moves from transparent and competitive markets to markets where there is less transparency and the profits are greater,'' he says. ``If you don't know how much you're paying, you're going to be paying too much.''

The Pennsylvania swap law was passed after lobbying by financial advisory firms that stood to profit from such deals.

The legislation made the state a member of an expanding club. Forty states give government bodies explicit authority to make derivative deals, up from none 20 years ago, says David Taub, a lawyer who specializes in derivatives and is a partner at McDermott Will & Emery in New York.

Derivatives aren't regulated by the SEC, the MSRB or by states. Pennsylvania offers a clear look at these deals because, by law, all the contract records must be publicly filed with the state.

Pennsylvania Adviser

One derivative advisory firm that backed the Pennsylvania swaps legislation is Investment Management Advisory Group Inc., or IMAGE. The Pottstown, Pennsylvania-based company was raided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in November 2006 in connection with a criminal antitrust investigation of bid rigging of investment contracts that are sold to states and municipalities.

The U.S. Justice Department is also probing municipal derivative deals. IMAGE has said it's cooperating with the probe. No charges have been filed.

In some Pennsylvania transactions, banks bought from school districts rights to exercise options on an interest-rate swap, or swaptions. Banks can choose to exercise the option if they stand to make money or can let the option expire if interest rates aren't favorable to them.

Banks Hedge Risk

The banks that arrange these deals create the swap contracts before pitching them to schools. Using software programs designed for valuing swaps, they calculate prices for which they can sell them after a school signs a contract. That's how the banks make money. For example, if a bank agrees to pay a district $800,000 in a deal it valued at $2 million, it could reap $1.2 million for itself and middlemen.

``They load it off instantly,'' says Taylor, who's now on the advisory board of Rockwater Municipal Advisors LLC, an Irvine, California-based investment firm.

Banks hedge their risk in derivative deals by making trades to cover possible losses to school districts. The banks make their money from fees, regardless of interest rate movements.

The reason Erie and other districts don't know how much the bank makes from a deal is because banks don't tell them, the records show. The money isn't paid immediately out of school budgets. Fees are hidden from schools because banks include those costs in the contract by adjusting interest rates up or down.

SEC Disclosure Rules

While the SEC doesn't regulate derivatives, it has authority to oversee how banks conduct transactions. SEC Chairman Cox says all financial firms should tell clients what their fees are before signing any deals.

``Brokers and advisers should disclose their compensation and conflicts of interest to their customers, and to the extent that they are regulated by the SEC, they must,'' he says.

Cox also says school district officials have a responsibility to the public and to bond investors to ensure their advisers are actually independent and acting in the best interests of taxpayers. ``To the extent that municipalities are participating in transactions they are not qualified for, there is an obligation to get good independent advice,'' he says.

More than two dozen Pennsylvania school districts bought swaps that bet on the spread between two interest rates. Many bet wrong. Since 2006, at least 27 school districts gambled that the spread would widen between either the five- or 10-year London interbank offered rate on the one hand and weekly municipal bond yields or the one-month Libor on the other.

The opposite happened: Spreads narrowed as long-term interest rates fell. The schools had to pay banks, or they could pay a steep exit fee, as Erie did with its swaption to cancel the deal.
 

Unilever Growth to Sputter as P&G Takes Market Share in India

(Bloomberg) -- Unilever, which sells soap to more than 500 million Indians, may see global revenue growth slow in 2010 as Procter & Gamble Co. and ITC Ltd. step up marketing in Asia's third-biggest economy.

The world's second-largest consumer products maker has relied on accelerating shipments of Surf Excel detergent in India to make up for sluggish sales in Europe. Now Cincinnati- based Procter & Gamble is stocking Indian stores with Olay skin- care products after nearly halving the local prices of Ariel and Tide detergents in 2004.

Asia and Africa, which make up about a third of Unilever's worldwide sales, will see their share of the company's growth fall to 2 percent in 2010 from 3.3 percent in 2007, according to Brussels-based brokerage Petercam SA. Revenue from the two continents rose 11.4 percent in the first nine months of last year, helping offset 1.9 percent growth in Europe and 4.2 percent in North and South America.

``Unilever is quite heavily dependent on the region for growth, so a slowdown there would hurt growth at Unilever as a whole,'' said Yann Gindraux, an analyst at Vontobel Holding AG in Zurich, speaking about Asia and Africa. He rates the stock ``sell'' and expects sales in the regions to expand by 9 percent in 2009 from 11 percent last year.

Unilever's overall sales growth will slow to 4.9 percent in 2010 from an estimated 5.3 percent in 2007, according to the median of five analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

2010 Expectations

Amid expectations of slowing growth by 2010, Unilever will return to 25.15 euros over the next 12 months -- about where it was at the start of the year -- according to analysts' estimates. The shares closed at 22 euros in Amsterdam trading yesterday, down 32 cents. Fourteen analysts recommend buying the stock. Another 14 say ``hold'' and nine ``sell.''

P&G, the world's largest consumer-goods maker, will continue to gain share in the next five years in India, according to Ali Dibadj, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in New York, who rates the stock ``outperform.'' Hindustan Unilever Ltd., 52 percent owned by the London- and Rotterdam-based parent, lost ground in shampoo, bath soap, toothpaste and tea in the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with the year earlier, according to the company. Its share of the shampoo market declined by more than a percentage point to 47.7 percent, the company said.

ITC, the largest Indian cigarette maker and partly owned by British American Tobacco Plc, is also making inroads. It started selling more brands including Fiama Di Wills shampoo and Superia soap last year as the government raised tobacco taxes.

`Profitable' Cigarettes

The tobacco maker ``has a very profitable cigarettes business which will help it to invest and expand its personal- care portfolio,'' said Anand Shah, an analyst at Angel Broking in Mumbai, who has a ``neutral'' rating on the stock. ``It has the ability to take losses in this segment as long as it grows its sales. This strategy will still satisfy investors.''

Rising prices of raw materials have made it more difficult for consumer-goods makers to pass on higher costs. The price of palm oil, used to make soaps and foods, has surged 70 percent in the past year.

``Given the competition, profitability will continue to be under pressure,'' said Macquarie Securities Ltd. analyst Unmesh Sharma, who has an ``underperform'' rating on Hindustan Unilever. He expects the stock to drop to 180 rupees ($4.57) in the next year from 190.9 rupees. The company has a market value of about $11.8 billion.

India is Unilever's biggest market in Asia, generating about 6 percent of annual sales. It has sold soap in the country since 1888 and controls about half of the sales of products such as skin creams, bathing soaps and shampoo.
 

Company Default Risk Rises as Recession, Lending Concerns Mount

(Bloomberg) -- The risk of companies defaulting rose after reports showing a contracting U.S. service industry and tightening lending standards by banks fueled concern that borrowers will find it tougher to raise cash.

Benchmark credit-default swap indexes in the U.S. and Europe reached the highest levels in two weeks, a sign of eroding investor confidence in corporate creditworthiness. Contracts tied to the bonds of SLM Corp., the biggest U.S. student lender, rose after Standard & Poor's late yesterday cut the company's credit rating to one level above junk. Contracts on NXP BV, the chipmaker bought by a Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.-led group, soared to the highest on record.

U.S. service industries unexpectedly shrank in January at the fastest pace since the last U.S. recession, an Institute for Supply Management index showed today. Banks lifted borrowing costs and made it harder for companies and households to raise funds over the past three months, the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey yesterday showed.

The weak economic and lending data ``is going to question people's ability to be optimistic about whether the monetary and fiscal stimulus is enough to turn things around later in the year,'' said Matthew Mish, a credit strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. Investors ``are going to have to confront the reality that the financial markets across the board are still extremely distressed and things aren't functioning properly.''

Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise indicates worsening perceptions of credit quality; a decline, the opposite.

CDX North America

The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, a benchmark gauge of default risk tied to the bonds of 125 companies, climbed 7.5 basis points to 117 basis points at 10:11 a.m. in New York, according to Deutsche Bank AG. In Europe, Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high- risk, high-yield credit ratings soared 34 basis points to 503. In Asia, the Markit iTraxx Japan index increased 3 to 68.

A gauge of investor confidence in the U.S. high-yield, high- risk loan market fell to the lowest since it started trading Oct. 3. The LCDX Series 9, which falls as sentiment worsens, dropped as much as 0.55 point to 92.2, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Sallie Mae

Credit-default swaps on Reston, Virginia-based SLM, known as Sallie Mae, climbed 35 basis points to 435 basis points, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group in New York, the biggest climb in two weeks. S&P cut the company's credit rating to BBB- and said it may lower it further on concerns that ``higher funding costs, reduced profitability and potential asset quality deterioration will keep pressure on'' the company.

Contracts on NXP BV, soared 97 basis points to 943, according to CMA Datavision in London. KKR's purchase of Eindhoven, Netherlands-based NXP for 3.4 billion euros in August 2006 was ill-conceived because the chip industry relies on economic growth more than other businesses, the Financial Times today said in its ``Lex'' column. While it's unlikely the company will go bankrupt, the buyout firms probably won't achieve the profit levels they expected, the paper said.

Financial companies are reluctant to lend because they may face losses exceeding $265 billion on securities linked to subprime mortgages, Standard & Poor's said last week.
 

Apple Adds Pricier IPods, IPhones With More Storage

(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. unveiled higher-priced models of its iPhone mobile handset and iPod media player with double the memory of previous versions.

The iPhone will now be available in a 16-gigbyte model for $499 and the iPod Touch in a $499, 32-gigabyte edition, the Cupertino, California-based company said today in a statement.

Apple's iPod shipment growth slowed last quarter, signaling that demand for the devices may be abating. The company introduced new models of the iPod, including the touch-screen version, in September to stimulate sales. Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs said he expects to sell 10 million iPhone handsets this year.

Apple fell 11 cents to $131.54 at 9:39 a.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares had dropped 34 percent this year before today.
 

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Northwest, JetBlue, AirTran Post Losses on Fuel Costs

(Bloomberg) -- Northwest Airlines Corp., JetBlue Airways Corp. and AirTran Holdings Inc. posted fourth-quarter losses as rising fuel costs erased gains from fare increases.

Northwest said its deficit was $8 million after a $267 million year-earlier loss in bankruptcy, while JetBlue's $4 million loss compared with net income of $17 million. AirTran pared its loss to $2.17 million from $3.55 million.

Fuel is ``the principal culprit,'' said Dave Swierenga, president of consulting firm AeroEcon in Round Rock, Texas. ``The softening economy is clearly also having a negative effect.''

Today's results from the three carriers echoed those reported earlier by larger rivals including American Airlines and United Airlines, which also blamed fuel for blunting benefits from higher fourth-quarter ticket prices.

JetBlue jumped as much as 16 percent, leading U.S. airline shares higher, as its loss was narrower than analysts expected. The shares rose 77 cents to $5.71 at 12:19 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading.

Northwest gained 56 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $18.50 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, while AirTran rose 29 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $8.75.

Northwest, the fifth-largest U.S. airline, and other big carriers raised fares six times last quarter to counter a 43 percent jump in average jet-fuel prices. The major airlines also doubled their fuel surcharges to $40 round trip. The surcharges are supposed to be temporary.

Northwest

Northwest's loss was 3 cents a share, narrower than the loss of 8 cents projected in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts. Sales at the Eagan, Minnesota-based airline rose 3.9 percent to $3.1 billion.

Northwest said it would have broken even except for a $14 million pretax loss from selling its remaining holdings in commuter carrier Pinnacle Airlines Corp. The quarterly deficit was Northwest's first since leaving bankruptcy in May.

Spending on fuel rose 16 percent to $937 million, making it Northwest's largest cost and helping to boost operating expenses by 4.3 percent. Higher prices were partially offset by a drop in fuel consumption as Northwest retired older, less-efficient planes and reduced mainline capacity by 2.5 percent.

The surge in fuel is spurring calls by investors for airlines to consolidate and pare expenses. Northwest is considering a tie-up with Delta Air Lines Inc., according to Northwest's pilots union. The airlines have declined to comment on any merger talks.
 

U.S. Stocks Rise After Earnings, Durable Goods Top Forecasts

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a second day, led by telephone companies and utilities, on better-than- forecast durable goods orders and earnings that topped estimates at two dozen members of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Dow Chemical Co., American Electric Power Co. and Valero Energy Corp. led gains among the 30 companies in the S&P 500 that reported results since markets closed yesterday. Boeing Co. and Caterpillar Inc. climbed after the Commerce Department said orders for U.S. durable goods rose the most since July.

The S&P 500 added 1, or 0.1 percent, to 1,354.97 at 1:06 p.m. in New York. The benchmark for U.S. equities is still down 7.6 percent in 2008 on concern the collapse of the subprime mortgage market will drag the economy into recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 25.04, or 0.2 percent, to 12,408.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 6.52, or 0.3 percent, to 2,343.39, dragged down by a 2.1 percent drop in Google Inc.

``When you see a durable goods number like this and then earnings outside of the financial sector doing quite well, people are beginning to realize that perhaps the contagion effect may be somewhat limited,'' said Damon Barglow, who helps oversee $1.9 billion at Eastern Investment Advisors in Boston, in an interview with Bloomberg Radio.

Durable Goods

Index futures doubled their advances after the 5.2 percent gain in durable goods orders last month highlighted how growing overseas demand may spur manufacturing as the U.S. economy slows. The Federal Reserve is to expected to cut interest rates tomorrow in an effort to spur growth.

The S&P 500 has gained 3.5 percent from its 16-month low on January 22 after falling as much as 15 percent from its Oct. 31 record.

Fourth quarter earnings advanced 20 percent on average for the 155 non-financial companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts expect the entire index to post an 18 percent average decline in profit.

Dow Chemical rose 43 cents to $38.02. The maker of 3,200 products ranging from synthetic latex to pesticides posted profit excluding some restructuring costs and other items of 84 cents, topping the 80-cent average estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Valero, American Electric

Valero Energy Corp. climbed $5.22 to $60.12. The largest U.S. refiner posted fourth-quarter profit of $1.02 a share, topping the 59-cent average analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Earnings were buttressed by a cut in Valero's tax rate and increased use of low-grade crude oil.

Sunoco Inc., the largest oil refiner in the U.S. East, added $2.20 to $63.35. Tesoro Corp., the largest refiner in the U.S. West, gained $2.90 to $41.29. ConocoPhillips, the nation's second-biggest refiner, increased $1.18 to $77.59.

American Electric Power Co. gained 59 cents to $42.82. The biggest U.S. producer of electricity from coal said fourth- quarter profit rose 28 percent on higher power sales and a gain from the sale of a stake in a power plant. Sales rose 10 percent to $3.3 billion on higher utility rates and colder weather that increased use of electricity for heating.

Boeing, the world's second-biggest commercial airplane maker, climbed $2.34, or 3 percent, to $79.94. Caterpillar, the largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, added 72 cents to $68.93.

The dollar strengthened and yields on Treasury notes rose after the durable-goods report. Economists had forecast orders would increase 1.6 percent in December, according to the median of 64 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Eli Lilly & Co. rallied 94 cents to $52.34. Excluding certain items, Lilly earned 90 cents a share, a penny higher than the average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
 

Durable goods orders jump, house prices slump

(Reuters) - Stronger-than-expected orders for U.S.-made durable goods in December suggested the economy retained some life and might not need a heavy dose of interest-rate cuts, even though house prices fell a record amount in November.

New orders for long-lasting goods rose 5.2 percent last month, a Commerce Department report showed on Tuesday, well above the 1.5 percent increase forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

The surprise surge in durable goods orders helped offset a report that showed home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell a record 8.4 percent in the year through November.

U.S. Treasuries fell after the durables report, which contradicted weakness in other areas of the economy and undermined the argument for more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Stocks rose.

A consumer sentiment survey, meanwhile, showed confidence fell in January but by slightly less than economists had expected. The Conference Board's index of consumer sentiment fell to 87.9 from an upwardly revised 90.6 in December.

"Consumers are on the edge but haven't packed it in yet. They are worried about the up-and-down stock market, falling house value and high gasoline prices. But they still have jobs," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.